The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. Thanks! Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. MANAGER'S SALARY. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries. It's easy. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. gold rush supreme second chance winners. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. PODCAST-19 brings you the latest evidence on the COVID-19 pandemic. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. ( Businessweek) The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. Whereas Tester . The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. Since then, the FiveThirtyEight blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, and popular culture. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Rev. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. security jobs paying $30 an hour; fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. - In her first-ever diary entry, recorded eight days after President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, Lady Bird presents a dramatic, cinematically detailed moment-by-moment account of those terrible hours in Dallas, and the days that follow. The podcast crew discusses what Rep. Liz Cheney might do next with her message and what an independent bid for president might entail. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, Happy holidays! The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). 450 episodes. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. 02:13:21 - Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85 Rachel Parker @RaichetP Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO https://heartlandp We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. This is the final episode. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. The crew debates whether a poll asking Americans which animals they could take on is a fight is a "good or bad use of polling." House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. 01:00 PM. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in New Jersey and Virginian and looks at the debate playing out between the two parties over how much wealthy Americans and corporations should be paying in taxes. podcast transcripts and podcast transcription services. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. You can't imitate a worldview. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. In 2021, cities around the country are choosing mayors to try to lead them through a long list of challenges, both pre-existing and brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. In this installment, we put that primary in context by looking more broadly at the relationship between urban centers and the Democratic Party. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. 3 min read. They determine whether we live in a free or repres New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. June 2, 2016. Instagram did not return a 200. Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. No place like 'Nam. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. . The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. Preview of Spotify. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. The data behind that evolution is striking. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . Transcripts by Erin Wade. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. It's a busy week! Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. Texas has been in a dire situation this week. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. What does it take to make democracy work? The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. All rights reserved. 9 days ago. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. Edit your transcribed text. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. The State Of The Polls, 2016. The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. At the beginning of the millennium, about two-thirds of Americans opposed same-sex marriage, and a third supported it. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms.
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